Brazil’s wheat imports could rise to 9 mln tons as domestic crop declines

Brazil could increase wheat imports to nearly 9 mln tons in 2026/27 amid a weaker outlook for domestic production. According to Safras & Mercado, the country’s wheat crop is forecast at just 5.9 mln tons. In early August, average daily imports of wheat and rye already reached 25.24 thsd tons, up 7.7% from a year earlier.

The supply situation is particularly tight in Paraná, Brazil’s largest wheat-producing state and the center of the country’s milling industry. The state’s crop is forecast at 2.2 mln tons, while annual milling demand is estimated at 3.85 mln tons, leaving a potential deficit of around 1.6 mln tons. El Niño poses an additional risk to the new crop as it could bring excessive rainfall to southern Brazil.

Brazil’s reliance on foreign supplies is increasing amid limited domestic stocks and higher prices. The average import price of wheat reached $241.4/t in early August, up 4.1% year-on-year. Argentina remains the main supplier, accounting for around 84% of Brazil’s wheat and rye imports in the first half of 2026.

At the same time, Brazil has limited options to diversify its purchases. U.S. wheat is around BRL 300/t more expensive than Argentine supplies, while a smaller exportable surplus in Paraguay is restricting another traditional source of wheat. As a result, imports are likely to play an increasingly important role in supplying Brazil’s wheat market if domestic production continues to decline.

Tags: Brazil, wheat, crop forecast