Wheat harvest in Ukraine will decrease slightly — USDA forecast for the new season
USDA has published a report with wheat harvest forecasts for the new MY 2025/26. World wheat production is forecast at 808.5 million tons (+8.81 million tons compared to the previous season), according to the USDA report for May.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213 million tons (+6.87 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 265.7 million tons (+0.52 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has decreased compared to the 2024/25 MY harvest by 0.4 million tons – to 23 million tons, exports will be at 16.5 million tons (+0.5 million tons). Ending stocks unchanged – 1.49 million tons.
The forecast for the US wheat crop is 52.28 million tons (-1.37 million tons), the export estimate is 21.77 million tons (-0.55 million tons), and the ending stocks are 25.12 million tons (+2.22 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for the MY 2025/26:
| Country | Yield, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Ending stocks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 20 (+1,46) | 13 (+2) | 4,65 (-0,29) |
| Australia | 31 (-3,11) | 25 (-2) | 4,32 (+0,1) |
| Canada | 36 (+1,04) | 27 (0) | 4,39 (+0,3) |
| EU | 136 (+13,8) | 34 (+7,5) | 12,86 (+0,5) |
| Russia | 83 (+1,4) | 45 (+1,5) | 11,59 (-0,2) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2025/26 at 142 million tons (+1.9 million tons), import estimates at 6 million tons (+2.7 million tons), and ending stocks at 123.9 million tons (-3 million tons).
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