EU oilseed production to decline despite expansion in planted area

Total oilseed production in the European Union could decline by 1.1% to 31.11 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, despite a 4.3% expansion in planted area to 12.26 mln hectares. According to the European Commission’s October forecast, the crop estimate was lowered by 230 thsd tons from the September figure of 31.34 mln tons. The main reasons for the revision were weaker rapeseed production prospects in Poland and lower sunflower seed and soybean output expectations in France. Nevertheless, the projected harvest remains 1.3% above the five-year average.

Rapeseed remains the EU’s largest oilseed crop, with production in 2026/27 forecast at 19.28 mln tons, down 4.4% from 20.17 mln tons in the previous season. The forecast was lowered by 110 thsd tons from September due to a deterioration in crop prospects in Poland. Meanwhile, rapeseed area increased by 5.3% to 6.36 mln hectares, while projected production remains 2.6% above the five-year average.

Unlike rapeseed, EU sunflower seed production could increase by 13.3% to 9.6 mln tons, compared with 8.47 mln tons in 2025/26. The increase will be supported by a 5% expansion in planted area to 4.9 mln hectares and an improvement in average yields from 1.82 to 1.96 tons/hectare. Sunflower seed remains the only major EU oilseed crop expected to record substantial production growth. However, the October crop estimate was reduced by 70 thsd tons due to weaker prospects in France.

The sharpest production decline is forecast for soybeans. The EU soybean crop could fall by 21.2% to 2.15 mln tons in 2026/27, compared with 2.73 mln tons a year earlier. The main factors are a 5.5% reduction in planted area to 960 thsd hectares and a decline in average yields from 2.69 to 2.25 tons/hectare. The soybean production forecast was lowered by another 50 thsd tons from September, mainly due to weaker expectations in France.

Total EU oilseed crushing in 2026/27 is forecast at 47.73 mln tons, compared with 48.06 mln tons in the previous season. Meanwhile, sunflower seed crushing could increase from 7.63 mln to 8.77 mln tons, supporting import demand. The European Commission raised its sunflower seed import forecast by 200 thsd tons to 1.2 mln tons, partly reflecting increased shipments from Argentina. Total EU oilseed imports are expected to reach 22.1 mln tons, compared with 22.62 mln tons a year earlier, while sunflower seed exports are projected at around 800 thsd tons. Oilseed ending stocks could decline by 148 thsd tons to 2.86 mln tons.

Tags: EU, soybean, oilseeds, sunseed, rapeseed