Wheat futures rise as Black Sea tensions intensify

Wheat futures closed higher across all three major U.S. exchanges on Thursday, July 30, supported by escalating tensions in the Black Sea region. September CBOT soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures rose to $243.79/ton, while Kansas City HRW wheat climbed to $268.50/ton and Minneapolis spring wheat increased to $261.43/ton.

On CBOT, September SRW wheat settled at $6.63½/bu, up 2¾ cents, while December futures gained 3¾ cents to $6.81½/bu. September HRW wheat on the Kansas City exchange closed at $7.30¾/bu, up 5¼ cents, and Minneapolis September spring wheat added 6½ cents to $7.11½/bu. The gains reflected growing concerns over Black Sea export logistics.

Market sentiment was further supported after a Ukrainian drone strike reportedly caused significant damage to a Russian grain export terminal in Taman, located on the Kerch Strait. At the same time, Ukraine’s agricultural industry warned that the continued blockade of its seaports could leave as much as 32.4 mln tons of agricultural commodities trapped on the domestic market, increasing pressure on logistics and exports.

Weekly U.S. export sales data showed net wheat sales of 285,165 tons for the week ended July 23, the lowest weekly total of the current marketing year and less than half the volume recorded during the same week a year earlier. Meanwhile, the European Commission lowered its 2026 wheat production forecast to 124.4 mln tons, cut projected exports to 29 mln tons, and reduced ending stocks to 12.9 mln tons. Tunisia also purchased 75,000 tons of wheat at $286/ton C&F, compared with $270/ton in its July 21 tender.

Corn futures moved lower despite solid export demand. September corn futures fell 3¼ cents to $4.45¾/bu, while December futures closed at $4.68½/bu. Weekly U.S. export sales totaled 362,916 tons of old-crop corn, the highest level in three weeks, while new-crop sales reached 1.062 mln tons, the strongest weekly result of the marketing year, led by purchases from Mexico and other destinations.

Soybean futures also ended lower. November soybean futures slipped 4 cents to $11.88¾/bu, although the USDA confirmed a private sale of 132,000 tons of new-crop soybeans to China. Weekly export sales reached 302,260 tons for old-crop soybeans and 1.333 mln tons for the 2026/27 crop. China purchased 519,000 tons, while soybean meal sales totaled 114,733 tons and soybean oil sales reached 1,099 tons.

On Euronext (MATIF), September milling wheat futures advanced to €229.50/ton, while December futures settled at €234.25/ton. August corn futures rose to €252.25/ton. At the close of trading, CBOT September wheat was up 0.42%, September corn fell 0.72%, November soybeans declined 0.33%, September rice gained 1.89%, while November rapeseed futures on ICE eased 0.39%. Sunflower oil FOB Rotterdam was quoted at $1,485/ton.

Tags: corn, prices, soybean, wheat