Wheat exports from Ukraine hardly will reach the volume specified in the Memorandum

Author:  Maryna Marynych

Article author:

Maryna Marynych
Grain Market Analyst

As of April 16, this season’s wheat exports from Ukraine totaled 14.72 MMT (down 20% y-o-y). Exports sharply decreased from December. The slowdown in shipments coincided with price growth due to customs tariff imposition on wheat exports in Russia along with a global market increase.

Importers have lost interest in Black Sea wheat and switched to buying that from Australia and Argentina at more attractive prices.

At the same time, it cannot be said that high prices was the only reason for the slump in exports. As before, the main factor is seasonality – most shipments are usually made early in the season.

Despite the slump in prices during the past month, importers are not in a hurry to return for buying old-crop wheat. The reasons include sufficient own stocks and the upcoming harvest in their countries.

The Memorandum signed between the government and market participants specified 17.5 MMT of wheat. According to UkrAgroConsult’s opinion, taking into consideration the current world market situation, exporters hardly will manage to sell the remaining exportable inventories of 3 MMT within such a short time.

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