Wheat could turn unprofitable in 2026, while rapeseed retains a stronger margin buffer — Agrohub

Wheat in Ukraine is approaching the break-even point in the 2026 season, while rapeseed retains a significantly stronger profitability buffer. Preliminary results show wheat yields down around 6.6% to 6.1 t/ha, while rapeseed yields increased from 2.9 to 3.4 t/ha, according to Agrohub.

Under a scenario where production costs rise by 10% and selling prices fall by 10%, the break-even yield for wheat is estimated at 5.98 t/ha. With the current yield at 6.1 t/ha, wheat is therefore very close to zero profitability.

For rapeseed, the break-even level under the same scenario is 2.5 t/ha, well below the current yield of 3.4 t/ha. This leaves the crop with a stronger profitability cushion even if prices weaken and production costs increase.

Under a more severe scenario — a 10% increase in costs and a 20% decline in prices — wheat’s break-even yield rises to 6.72 t/ha, above the actual yield. For rapeseed, the break-even point is 2.81 t/ha, still below the current 3.4 t/ha.

Based on sales of the 2025 crop, average EBITDA across major crops was $405/ha, down about 9% from $446/ha in 2024. Agrohub said season performance should be assessed based on the final financial result per hectare, taking into account selling prices, costs and the timing of sales.

Tags: wheat, rapeseed