Greece eyes its biggest olive oil crop in four years, but prices remain under pressure

Greek olive oil production in the 2026/27 MY could rise to around 300 thsd tons after a disappointing previous season. If the forecast materializes, it would be the country’s largest output since 2022/23, when production exceeded 330 thsd tons.

Particularly strong harvests are expected in the Peloponnese and Crete. Production in Messenia could exceed 60 thsd tons, while output in Crete may be roughly double last year’s 40 thsd tons due to improved weather conditions and sufficient rainfall.

At the same time, producer prices remain under pressure. Carryover stocks from the previous harvest are selling at around €3.40/liter in some regions, while new-crop extra virgin olive oil is expected to trade at around €4/liter.

Greek producers say profitability deteriorates sharply when prices fall below €5/liter due to high harvesting, fertilizer, irrigation and energy costs. Significant carryover stocks also remain on the market, while demand from traders and large bottlers is still limited.

Further price developments will largely depend on the harvest in Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer. A large Spanish crop could add further pressure to the Greek market and limit export demand for new-crop olive oil.

Tags: olive oil, olives, Greece