USDA wheat carryover forecast left unchanged
Apart from off-setting by-class adjustments to imports and exports, US Department of Agriculture economists left their projections for 2020-21 US wheat supply and demand largely unchanged for a second consecutive month.
In its March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA forecast the carryover of US wheat on June 1, 2021, at 836 million bushels, unchanged from the February and January projections and down 192 million bushels, or 19%, from 1.03 billion bushels in 2020.
Private trade analysts pre-report estimates for the USDA’s carryover projection, which ranged from 826 million to 868 million bushels, was 839 million bushels. Analysts’ own estimates ranged from 816 million to 841 million bushels, averaging 830 million bushels.
Domestic wheat supply and demand forecasts were left entirely unchanged from the February estimate, including beginning stocks at 1.03 billion bushels, production at 1.83 billion bushels, and imports at 120 million bushels, for a total supply of 2.97 billion bushels.
Also carried over untouched from February were the projections for total US food, seed, and feed and residual use categories for wheat, at 965 million, 63 million and 125 million bushels, respectively, for a total domestic use of 1.15 billion bushels. Projected exports were unchanged from February at 985 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 965 million bushels in 2020.
There were relatively minor, off-setting adjustments to wheat by class. For hard red winter wheat, total supply was raised 1 million bushels from February to 1.17 billion bushels while the export projection was lowered 20 million bushels. The result was a 21-million-bushel increase in hard red winter wheat ending stocks to 383 million bushels.
The projection for soft red winter wheat total supply was lowered 1 million bushels, resulting in a like decline in projected ending stocks to 99 million bushels. The white wheat export projection was raised 20 million bushels, leading to a like decline in white wheat ending stocks to 64 million bushels.
In commentary accompanying the monthly update, the USDA said, “White wheat exports are raised on continued strong sales and shipments to China and South Korea. Conversely, hard red winter exports are lowered as commitments to several western hemisphere markets are below a year ago.”
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