USDA raises estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest and ending stocks, lowers export forecast
USDA has increased its forecast for world wheat production in the MY 2025/26 by 0.32 million tons to 842.12 million tons, the ministry’s report for March states.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 222.16 million tons (+0.2 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 276.96 million tons (-0.55 million tons).
The estimate for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has increased by 1 million tons to 24 million tons, exports will be at the level of 13.5 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks – 3.13 million tons (+1.5 million tons).
“World supply increased by 0.2 million tonnes to 1,101.8 million tonnes, mainly due to increased production in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, partially offsetting lower production in Australia,” the report said.
The US wheat harvest is forecast at 54.01 million tonnes. Exports are also unchanged at 24.49 million tonnes, with ending stocks at 25.34 million tonnes.
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Yield, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 27,8 (0) | 19,5 (+1,5) | 3,31 (-1) |
| Australia | 36 (-1) | 27 (0) | 4,12 (-1) |
| Canada | 39,96 (0) | 29 (0) | 5,89 (0) |
| EU | 144 (0) | 30,5 (-1,5) | 15,67 (+0,01) |
| Russia | 89,5 (0) | 43,5 (-0,5) | 15,19 (+0,5) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the 2025/26 MY at 140.07 million tons, imports estimated at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.85 million tons.
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