USDA lowers estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest and exports this season
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons (-0.04 million tons compared to the previous season), according to the USDA report for July.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213.06 million tons (-1.27 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 261.52 million tons (-1.24 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has decreased by 1 million tons to 22 million tons, exports will be at 15.5 million tons (-1 million tons), ending stocks unchanged – 1.59 million tons (+0.1 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 52.49 million tons (+0.21 million tons). Estimated exports are 23.13 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks are 24.23 million tons (-0.22 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for 2025/26 MY:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Stoks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 20 (0) | 13 (0) | 4,65 (0) |
| Australia | 31 (0) | 25 (0) | 4,35 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 35 (-1) | 27 (0) | 3,49 (-0,9) |
| EU | 137,25 (+0,7) | 32 (-2) | 12,61 (-0,3) |
| Russia | 83,5 (+0,5) | 46 (+1) | 9,39 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in 2025/26 MY at 142 million tons, estimated imports — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.6 million tons.
Discover more about аgri market developments at the 11 International Conference BLACK SEA OIL TRADE on September 23 in Bucharest! Join agribusiness professionals from 25+ countries for a powerful start of the oilseed season!
Read also
Myande Group – Platinum Sponsor of BLACK SEA OIL TRADE-2025
Brazil begins planting first crop of corn
Kazakhstan plans to become a key global linseed exporter
Israel and Moldova sign strategic wheat partnership to boost food security
Russia. Growth in the oilseed segment is expected only in sunflower oil
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon