USDA lowers estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest and exports this season
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons (-0.04 million tons compared to the previous season), according to the USDA report for July.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213.06 million tons (-1.27 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 261.52 million tons (-1.24 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has decreased by 1 million tons to 22 million tons, exports will be at 15.5 million tons (-1 million tons), ending stocks unchanged – 1.59 million tons (+0.1 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 52.49 million tons (+0.21 million tons). Estimated exports are 23.13 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks are 24.23 million tons (-0.22 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for 2025/26 MY:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Stoks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 20 (0) | 13 (0) | 4,65 (0) |
| Australia | 31 (0) | 25 (0) | 4,35 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 35 (-1) | 27 (0) | 3,49 (-0,9) |
| EU | 137,25 (+0,7) | 32 (-2) | 12,61 (-0,3) |
| Russia | 83,5 (+0,5) | 46 (+1) | 9,39 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in 2025/26 MY at 142 million tons, estimated imports — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.6 million tons.
Further development of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be in the spotlight of the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV conference, taking place on April 22–23 in Kyiv. The event will focus on strategic directions for the agricultural sector through 2030, including investments, energy independence, processing, and exports of high-value products.
Join strategic discussions and networking with industry leaders to gain актуальна insights, discover new business opportunities, and build partnerships with key market players.
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