USDA lowers 2022/23 U.S. stocks and Argentine soybean crop forecasts

The March report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 8th, did not bring major surprises to the market, with little impact on Chicago. USDA brought negative adjustments to US stocks and the Argentine crop, confirming the bias expected by market players.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to hit 4.276 bln bushels in 2022/23, equivalent to 116.38 mln tons. The yield was indicated at 49.5 bushels per acre, in line with the February indications.

US ending stocks are now projected at 210 mln bushels or 5.72 mln tons, up from 225 mln bushels in February – 6.13 mln tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 219 mln. USDA indicated the crush at 2.220 bln bushels (60.42 mln tons), down from February’s estimate of 2.230 bln. The estimate for exports was raised to 2.015 bln bushels (54.84 mln tons).

With regard to the global picture, USDA now projects the world soybean production in 2022/23 at 375.15 mln tons. In February, the projection was 383.01 mln tons. Ending stocks are estimated at 100.01 mln tons, against 102.03 mln tons in January. The market was expecting ending stocks of 100.10 mln tons.

USDA projects the US crop at 116.38 mln tons, the same as in February, as already mentioned. The Brazilian crop was maintained at 153 mln tons, and Argentine production was cut from 41 to 33 mln tons.

China must import 96 mln tons, the same forecast indicated in the previous month.

Tags: yield, Market, China, Argentina, импорт, USDA, Brazil, soybean, US, ending stocks, Production, crop