USDA forecasts sharp growth in global oilseed production in MY 2026/27

FAS USDA experts, in their May report, made only minor changes to the global oilseed balance for the 2025/26 marketing year, while the main focus was on the first outlook for the 2026/27 season.

The forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 has been raised to a record 718.1 million tonnes, which is 19.6 million tonnes higher than in 2025/26 (686.65 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 657.5 million tonnes in 2023/24). In particular, soybean output is projected to increase by 13.9 million tonnes to 441.54 million tonnes, sunflower seed production by 7 million tonnes to 61.78 million tonnes, and rapeseed (canola) by 1.4 million tonnes to 96.89 million tonnes, which offsets a decline in cottonseed output by 3 million tonnes to 39.25 million tonnes.

Global oilseed crushing in 2026/27 is expected to rise by 4% to 606 million tonnes (585.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, 568.8 million tonnes in 2024/25, and 543.74 million tonnes in 2023/24), driven by higher soybean processing in the United States, Brazil, China, and Argentina, increased sunflower seed crushing in Ukraine, the EU, russia, and Argentina, and stronger canola processing in Canada.

Global oilseed ending stocks in 2026/27 are projected at 146.7 million tonnes (146 million tonnes in 2025/26, 144.3 million tonnes in 2024/25, and 136.1 million tonnes in 2023/24), which is expected to limit further price growth.

Global soybean production is forecast to rise to 441.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, including an increase of 4.7 million tonnes to 120.7 million tonnes in the United States and 6 million tonnes to 186 million tonnes in Brazil due to expanded planting areas, as well as higher output in Paraguay, russia, and China, while production is expected to decline in Canada, Argentina, Ukraine, and Uruguay.

July soybean futures in Chicago rose 1.1% to $450.8/t after the report’s release (+5.3% since the April report), while November futures are trading $8/t lower.

Global sunflower seed production has been raised to 61.78 million tonnes (54.74 million tonnes in 2025/26 and 53 million tonnes in 2024/25), including increases for russia to 19.2 million tonnes (17.5 and 16.9), Ukraine to 13.5 million tonnes (11 and 13), the EU to 9.9 million tonnes (8.7 and 8.7), and Argentina to 8 million tonnes (7 and 5.6).

In Ukraine, sunflower seed prices after reaching a seasonal peak of 33,500–34,000 UAH/t delivered to plant at 50% oil content (about 2,500 UAH/t higher than last month) have now declined to 31,600–32,500 UAH/t under pressure from falling vegetable oil prices.

Global rapeseed (canola) production in 2026/27 is forecast to rise to 96.89 million tonnes (95.5 million tonnes in 2025/26 and 86.25 million tonnes in 2024/25), including 20.7 million tonnes in the EU, 22 million tonnes in Canada, 16.2 million tonnes in China, 12.4 million tonnes in India, 6.2 million tonnes in Australia, and 4 million tonnes in Ukraine.

Ukraine is expected to increase rapeseed processing volumes from 1.1 to 2 million tonnes, while reducing exports from 2.2 to 2 million tonnes due to stronger domestic crushing demand.

Yesterday, August rapeseed futures in Paris rose 1.4% to €522/t or $615/t (+5% over the month), while July canola futures in Winnipeg increased 1.3% to CAD 754/t or $550/t (+5% over the month), supported by another rise in oil prices.

Oilseed markets remain under pressure from volatile crude oil prices, which support palm and soybean oil values at elevated levels, although physical markets are seeing rising supply and importers are lowering prices in anticipation of a larger crop in the next season.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean, Black Sea region, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, crop forecast