USDA expects wheat production by major exporters to fall 11% in 2026/27

Combined wheat production among the world’s seven largest exporters is projected to decline by 11% in the 2026/27 marketing year, while exports are expected to fall 7% from the previous season, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The downgrade is primarily attributed to drought across several major producing regions.

The sharpest decline is expected in North America. USDA forecasts U.S. wheat production to fall by 26%, with exports down nearly 15%, as persistent drought across the Southern Plains has significantly reduced hard red winter wheat output. In Canada, wheat production is projected to decline by 15%, while exports are expected to decrease by 8% due to reduced planted area and high fertilizer costs.

Drought is also affecting the European Union, where hot and dry weather has reduced wheat and corn yields. Meanwhile, crop prospects in Ukraine and Russia remain relatively favorable, but exports from the Black Sea region are increasingly constrained by escalating security risks and disruptions to maritime shipping.

Another source of uncertainty is the expected development of El Niño later this year. USDA estimates that Australia’s wheat area has already declined by 12% because of anticipated dry conditions and rising fertilizer costs, which is expected to reduce exports. Argentina’s wheat exports are also forecast to fall by 19%, although increased rainfall associated with El Niño could partially offset production losses.

The combination of drought across key exporting countries and ongoing disruptions to Black Sea trade is increasing uncertainty in the global wheat market. Analysts warn that if logistical constraints in the Black Sea persist, global export supplies could tighten further, providing additional support for world wheat prices.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Australia, Ukraine, export, EU, Canada, Black Sea region