USDA analysts raised corn harvest forecast in Ukraine and Brazil
USDA forecasts world corn production in MY 2025/26 at 1,297.44 million tons (+1.53 million tons). This is stated in the ministry’s March report.
Estimated world corn exports are 206.85 million tons (+0.3 million tons), forecast ending stocks are 292.75 million tons (+3.77 million tons).
USDA analysts have increased the forecast for the corn harvest in Ukraine in MY 2025/26 to 30.7 million tons (+1.7 million tons). Estimated exports are unchanged at 22 million tons, ending stocks are 1.95 million tons (+1.3 million tons).
“Corn production outside the US will increase, as increased forecasts for Ukraine and Brazil partially offset the decrease for Argentina. The forecast for Ukraine has been raised based on the latest data from the State Statistics Service,” the report says.
The forecast for corn production in the United States has not changed and remains at the level of 432.34 million tons, the export forecast is 83.82 million tons, and ending stocks will be at the level of the previous forecast of 54.02 million tons.
The forecast for major corn exporters for the MY 2025/26:
| Country | Yield, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 52 (-1) | 37 (0) | 5,09 (-0,8) |
| Brazil | 132 (+1) | 43 (0) | 5,96 (+2,28) |
| Russia | 14,5 (0) | 3 (0) | 1,06 (0) |
| South Africa | 16,5 (0) | 2,2 (0) | 2,04 (0) |
China’s corn harvest is estimated at 301.24 million tons. Imports will be 8 million tons, and ending stocks will be 180.15 million tons.
Further development of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be in the spotlight of the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV conference, taking place on April 22–23 in Kyiv. The event will focus on strategic directions for the agricultural sector through 2030, including investments, energy independence, processing, and exports of high-value products.
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