USDA analysts increased the forecast of wheat exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 MY
The world wheat production in 2023/24 season is forecasted at 785.74 mln tonnes (+0.83 mln tonnes). This is evidenced by the USDA report for February.
Analysts raised the forecast of world wheat exports by 1.15 mln tonnes to 210.69 mln tonnes. Experts estimated the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world at 259.44 million tons (-0.59 million tons).
USDA experts left unchanged their forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY – 23.4 mln tonnes. The export estimate increased to 15 mln tonnes (+1 mln tonnes). The forecast of ending stocks was reduced by 0.4 mln tonnes to 3.98 mln tonnes.
The forecast for the wheat harvest (49.31 million tons) in the United States remained unchanged. Exports will be at the level of 19.73 million tons. The ending stocks of wheat in the United States will amount to 17.9 million tons, which is 0.28 million tons less than the previous forecast.
Forecast for the main wheat exporters for 2023/24 MY (February report compared to January):
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 15,5 (+0,5) | 10,5 (+0,5) | 2,38 (+0,01) |
| Australia | 25,5 (0) | 19,5 (+0,5) | 3,57 (0) |
| Canada | 31,95 (0) | 24 (0) | 3,51 (+0,01) |
| EU | 134 (-0,3) | 36,5 (0) | 15,52 (+0,2) |
| russia | 91 (0) | 51 (0) | 11,94 (0) |
USDA analysts did not change the forecast of wheat production in China in 2023/24 MY – 136.59 mln tonnes, imports estimate – 0.9 mln tonnes, ending stocks – 133.01 (-0.5 mln tonnes).
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