US soybean exporters shift to alternative markets as China demand weakens

U.S. soybean exporters are increasingly redirecting shipments to alternative markets following a sharp decline in sales to China, the world’s largest soybean importer. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), total U.S. soybean export commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year stood at 41.4 mln tons as of July 16, down 18.5% from a year earlier. Chinese purchases fell 45% year-on-year to 12.4 mln tons, according to Platts, part of S&P Global.

Despite the sharp decline in Chinese demand, U.S. exporters have partially offset the losses by expanding sales to other destinations. USDA data show that an additional 3.3 mln tons of soybeans have been sold to alternative markets, with most of the growth coming from Asian countries supported by new trade agreements with the United States and efforts to diversify supply sources.

The strongest growth in purchases has come from Japan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Egypt. Japan increased its soybean commitments to 2.3 mln tons (+10.2% year-on-year), Indonesia to 2.4 mln tons (+19.8%), Bangladesh to 1.2 mln tons (+49%), Egypt to 4.9 mln tons (+41.6%), while Pakistan more than tripled its purchases to 1.1 mln tons after lifting restrictions on imports of genetically modified crops.

However, market participants acknowledge that none of these buyers can fully replace China’s demand. Traders noted that China largely suspended purchases of U.S. soybeans for nearly five months amid trade tensions with Washington, favoring Brazilian supplies instead. Although imports of U.S. soybeans resumed in late October 2025, volumes remain well below previous levels. An additional challenge is China’s 10% import tariff on U.S. soybeans, which continues to reduce their competitiveness against Brazilian exports.

Despite President Donald Trump’s earlier statement that China could increase purchases of U.S. soybeans to 20 mln tons in 2026, traders remain skeptical. For the 2026/27 marketing year, China has so far committed to buying only 2.4 mln tons of U.S. soybeans, indicating that its import strategy remains cautious.

Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts U.S. soybean production to increase to 120.7 mln tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, while exports are expected to reach 45.18 mln tons, up 9.2% from the previous season. As a result, U.S. exporters are likely to continue expanding their presence in alternative markets unless Chinese demand returns to previous levels.

Tags: China, Egypt, export, Indonesia, Pakistan, soybean, USA, Bangladesh, Japan