US corn stocks to fall 18% — USDA
US corn ending stocks in MY 2026/27 are forecast to fall 18% from the current season to 1.567 bln bushels, according to USDA. In its August outlook, USDA projected stocks at 1.653 bln bushels, while MY 2025/26 stocks are estimated at 1.922 bln bushels.
The main reason for the tighter stocks outlook is a smaller crop forecast. USDA estimates 2026 US corn production at 15.8 bln bushels, down 213 mln bushels from the August forecast and 7% below the 2025 crop.
The yield forecast was also reduced to 178.5 bu/acre from 180.7 bu/acre a month earlier and 186.5 bu/acre in 2025. The lower crop potential is linked to hot and dry weather in parts of the US Corn Belt during late summer.
At the same time, USDA cut its forecast for feed and residual use by 150 mln bushels to 5.95 bln bushels. The export forecast was left unchanged at 3.275 bln bushels, while total domestic use is projected at 12.905 bln bushels.
As a result, the corn stocks-to-use ratio in MY 2026/27 is expected to decline to 9.7% from 10.1% in the August forecast. Analysts note that demand from exports, ethanol production and the feed sector remains relatively firm, supporting the market amid tighter supplies.
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