Black Sea disruptions add $45–63/t to wheat costs for importers

Disruptions to Black Sea shipping, now entering a third month, have sharply increased costs for major wheat importers and pushed buyers to seek alternative origins. According to S&P Global Energy, compared with their final tenders before the disruption, Jordan is paying around $57/t more for wheat, Saudi Arabia $63/t more, Algeria $56/t more and Tunisia $45/t more.

One of the main drivers has been a sharp rise in freight rates and tighter supply from the Black Sea region. Russian exporters are redirecting some cargoes to Baltic ports, but terminals there are congested and rail, storage and handling capacity remains limited. Freight from the Baltic to Egypt rose by $10/t in a week to $54/t.

Ukrainian exports are also becoming more dependent on more expensive alternative routes. In July–September, the share of maritime transport in Ukraine’s wheat exports fell to 78% from 98% a year earlier, while rail increased to 17% and ferry shipments to 4%. Congestion on routes through Moldova and queues at the Sulina Canal are adding further costs.

Egypt has been particularly affected. The country imported just 358.9 thsd tons of wheat in September, down 50% month on month and 74% year on year. Ukraine became the largest supplier with 136.9 thsd tons, while CIF Egypt wheat prices remained around $313/t, a $109/t premium to the Black Sea FOB benchmark.

Other importers are also reshaping their buying strategies. Türkiye is relying more heavily on its record domestic crop and government stocks, while it may turn to Lithuania and Germany for high-protein wheat if Russian supply remains constrained. Bangladesh is increasing purchases of Indian wheat. Prolonged Black Sea disruption is therefore steadily redirecting global wheat trade toward alternative suppliers, particularly the EU and India.

Tags: prices, Black Sea region, wheat, logistics