Uruguay’s soybean production set for strong rebound in 2026/27 after drought hit crop

Uruguay’s soybean production is forecast to rebound sharply in the 2026/27 marketing year following a drought-reduced harvest the previous season, according to a report by the USDA. The recovery is expected to be supported by improved weather conditions and the potential influence of an El Niño event, which typically brings wetter conditions to the region.

Output is projected to rise to around 3.1 million tonnes, with planted area expanding modestly to 1.3 million hectares. Soybeans remain the country’s most stable summer crop, as they require fewer inputs and benefit from consistently strong export demand.

However, farmers continue to face pressure from weak global soybean prices and persistently high input costs. Uruguay’s production costs remain higher than in neighboring countries, increasing producers’ exposure to global price volatility.

Exports are forecast to reach about 2.8 million tonnes, with China expected to remain the dominant buyer, accounting for more than 80% of shipments and potentially rising closer to 90%.

Secondary destinations such as Egypt and Bangladesh are expected to maintain smaller import volumes, although no stable alternative major market has emerged. At the same time, domestic soybean processing remains limited due to insufficient industrial capacity.

As a result, Uruguay exports most of its soybeans as whole beans while importing soybean meal and oil, mainly from Argentina and Paraguay, to support its livestock sector.

Analysts note that despite the expected production rebound, Uruguay will remain heavily dependent on external markets and weather conditions, with China’s demand continuing to play a decisive role in shaping export performance.

Tags: soybean, Uruguay, crop forecast