Urea prices in Brazil rise amid higher gas costs and limited supplies

Urea prices in Brazil increased to $476–488/t CFR in late October 2026, compared with $464–482/t a week earlier. According to Fertilizer Daily, citing Nobel Trading’s report dated October 26, actual transactions for granular urea were concluded at $475–490/t. The price increase came amid high global natural gas prices, limited fertilizer supplies and uncertainty over future purchases by major importers.

One of the main drivers of the price increase was a sharp rise in European natural gas prices. According to Nobel Trading, gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub exceeded €90/MWh on October 20, pushing estimated urea production costs in northwestern Europe to $740/t from $678/t previously. Meanwhile, Chinese urea was offered at $470–475/t at the Brazilian ports of Aratu and Paranaguá, although available volumes remained limited. Urea from Qatar and Nigeria was offered at $485–500/t.

India’s import purchasing activity is adding further uncertainty to the global market. According to Nobel Trading estimates, India purchased only around 410 thsd tons of urea in its October 7 tender, compared with the planned 1.7 mln tons, although Indian Potash Limited (IPL) has not yet published official award results. The lowest offers were $352.10/t for the east coast and $356.25/t for the west coast. Analysts expect another Indian tender between late October and mid-November, while the country’s urea stocks are estimated at 6.8–8.1 mln tons.

Price trends in Brazil’s other mineral fertilizer markets remain mixed. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices held steady at $832–850/t CFR, with Russia becoming the country’s main supplier of this fertilizer. Meanwhile, granular muriate of potash (MOP) prices edged lower to $358–371/t. According to preliminary data, potash fertilizer arrivals in Brazil reached around 634 thsd tons in October, down 27% compared with the same period last year.

Overall, Brazil’s combined imports of urea and ammonium sulfate declined by 21% year on year to 7.95 mln tons in January–September 2026. Lower nitrogen fertilizer imports amid high energy costs are increasing the risk of further rises in procurement expenses for Brazilian farmers. Future price movements will depend on developments in the global natural gas market, the availability of export supplies from China and the Middle East, and the results of India’s upcoming tenders, which could influence the distribution of global urea supplies.

Tags: Brazil, fertilizers, carbamide