Updated supply and demand balance for oilseeds in Ukraine

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Official data on planted areas and crop tour results prompted a revision of Ukraine’s oilseed acreage structure: sunflower and especially soybean area estimates were reduced, while the rapeseed area estimate was increased. Despite the acreage adjustments, the overall oilseed production potential for MY 2026/27 remains significantly higher than last year due to the expected recovery in yields. At the same time, the hot start to August has sharply increased risks for sunflower and soybeans, while realization of the season’s production potential is becoming increasingly dependent on logistics and stable port operations.

Sunseed. Despite the downward revision in planted area, supply is expected to recover significantly compared with the poor MY 2025/26 crop. The industry has sufficient capacity to process almost all available volumes, although realization of this potential will depend on plant operations and the ability to export processed products. Heat and insufficient rainfall are already worsening crop conditions and creating a risk of further downward revisions to the production forecast.

Soybeans. The largest balance revision is associated with a significant reduction in the planted area estimate. Even higher expected yields will not compensate for the acreage decline, meaning production may fall compared with the previous season. Consequently, the export potential for soybeans and processed soybean products is declining, while domestic crushing remains an important source of demand.

Rapeseed. The rapeseed outlook has improved due to higher acreage and yields. With port logistics remaining constrained, additional production could primarily be directed to domestic crushing, while export potential remains limited.

Overall conclusion. The MY 2026/27 has strong production potential, but the key risks are increasingly shifting from production volumes toward the ability to market the crop. Unstable port logistics create risks of slower exports and stock accumulation, while weather conditions may still reduce the production potential of spring oilseeds.

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Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean, rapeseed, crop condition, crop forecast