Ukrainian rapeseed adds pressure to the European market
Rising rapeseed shipments from Ukraine are adding pressure to the European market. Ukraine exported around 430 thsd tons of rapeseed in September, while European farmers also stepped up sales. This has improved raw material availability for EU crushers and weakened price support.
Against this backdrop, November rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 3.3% on October 7 to €506.25/t, or around $567/t. The nearby contract has lost 9.4% over the past two weeks and 9.7% over the past month.
February futures declined much less, falling by 1.5% to €552.75/t. The spread between November and February contracts has widened to more than €46/t, indicating substantially stronger pressure on nearby supplies.
Additional pressure on the European market is coming from lower canola prices in Canada. November futures in Winnipeg fell by 2% in one day to 810 CAD/t, or around $568/t, amid faster harvest progress and expectations of rising supply.
Further growth in rapeseed exports from Ukraine, active farmer selling in the EU and increasing canola supplies from Canada could continue to weigh on prices. At the same time, market volatility may remain elevated ahead of the November contract expiry on October 30.
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