Ukraine's wheat export prices continue to rise due to limited supply

A new wave of frost and ice continued to hamper grain deliveries to Ukrainian ports this week, forcing exporters to raise purchase prices to increase supplies.

Wheat prices are also rising, supported by speculation about the impact of frost on winter wheat crops in major exporting countries, but increased competition from wheat from Argentina and Australia, as well as wheat exports from India, will continue to keep wheat prices low.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by another 50-100 UAH/t to 10,500-10,650 UAH/t or $215-217/t for food wheat and 10,250-10,300 UAH/t or $208-209/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

During this time, March wheat futures have increased slightly due to increased exports, namely:

• by 1.7% to $197.6/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.9% to $198/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.5% to €190.5/t or $225.6/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris.

At the same time, HRS wheat futures in Minneapolis fell by 0.5% to $208.8/t.

Wheat exports from the US during February 5-12 decreased by 35.3% compared to the previous week to 375.4 thousand tons, but in total in the 2025/26 season reached 17.7 million tons, which is 18.9% higher than last year’s pace and supports quotes.

From July 1 to February 15, the EU exported 15.11 million tonnes of soft wheat, which is 1.46 million tonnes more than the corresponding figure of the previous year and for the first time this season it is ahead of last year’s pace. But experts continue to lower export forecasts for the EU, which increases pressure on prices, including for Black Sea wheat.

France’s winter crop crop is in its best condition in three years, FranceAgriMer reports. The agency estimates that as of February 9, 91% of the soft wheat crop, 88% of winter barley and 87% of durum wheat were in good or excellent condition, significantly higher than in previous seasons.

According to IKAR, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein increased by $1-2/t to $233-235/t FOB during the week due to difficult weather conditions that hindered shipments from southern Russian ports. At the same time, the forecast for wheat exports in February was increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.3 million tons. In addition, the forecast for wheat production in Russia in 2026 was increased from 88 to 91 million tons due to favorable growing conditions.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat