Ukraine’s corn export problems could help the US set a record for a second consecutive year

The sharp deterioration in Ukraine’s ability to export grain through the Black Sea could create additional opportunities for US corn on the global market. According to the USDA office in Ukraine, the country may export only 14 mln tons of corn in 2026/27, 9 mln tons below previous expectations. If this scenario materializes, the US could capture part of the demand from traditional buyers of Ukrainian grain.

The decline in export potential comes despite expectations for a relatively large crop. USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s corn production to 31.8 mln tons, but port logistics disruptions are limiting the country’s ability to move grain abroad. Alternative overland and Danube routes are more expensive and cannot fully replace the capacity of Ukraine’s deep-sea Black Sea ports.

The US, meanwhile, is already showing strong corn export performance. Export inspections reached 1.9 mln tons in the week ending August 13, up 81.7% from the same week last year. Since the start of the MY 2025/26, US corn inspected for export has reached around 81 mln tons, up 26.1% year-on-year.

A further decline in Ukrainian shipments could strengthen the US position in markets where Ukrainian corn traditionally competes with American supplies. The duration of Black Sea disruptions will be particularly important: the longer Ukrainian ports operate under restrictions, the more importers may shift purchases toward alternative origins.

According to Farm Progress, under this scenario US corn exports could reach a record for the second consecutive season. Strong US export potential could therefore receive additional support this season as Ukraine’s presence in the global corn market declines.

Tags: corn, export, EU, USA, Ukraine