Ukraine to increase exports of grains and oilseeds to 49 mln tons – UGA
The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts the 2025 grain and oilseed harvest at 81.4 MMT. For comparison, according to UGA estimates, the 2024 crop totaled 79 MMT of grains and oilseeds.
With such a harvest, exports in the current 2025/2026 season could potentially reach 49 MMT (compared to 46.7 MMT in the previous season). However, this is an optimistic scenario, the realization of which depends on resolving serious logistics problems. Ukraine is currently experiencing significant challenges in grain export logistics due to constant Russian terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure – energy, railways, and Ukraine’s seaports. As a result of Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure, railways and ports cannot operate at full capacity due to damage to their infrastructure, electricity shortages, and constant blackouts.
Obviously, the inability to export significant volumes of the harvested crop due to logistics problems will have an extremely negative impact on Ukrainian agricultural producers and prices in the domestic market. It could also deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy and its balance of payments.
Wheat: UGA estimates the 2025 wheat crop at 22.5 MMT (22.4 MMT in 2024). Potential wheat exports in the 2025/2026 MY could reach 16.5 MMT.
Barley: according to UGA estimates, the 2025 barley crop is 4.9 MMT (5.6 MMT in 2024), with probable exports in the 2025/2026 MY expected at around 2.3 MMT.
Corn: Expectations for this year’s corn crop are positive due to favorable weather conditions and the crop yield. According to UGA estimates, the corn crop will total 32 MMT (25.9 MMT in 2024), and potential exports in the current season could reach 25 MMT, but again, subject to unimpeded logistics.
Sunflower seeds: the 2025 crop is expected at 11.5 MMT (12.8 MMT in 2024). Traditionally, almost all sunflower seeds will be processed in Ukraine, 11.4 MMT. Exports will not exceed 50 thousand MT.
In 2025, the Rapeseed crop amounts to 3.2 MMT (3.8 MMT in 2024), with exports in the 2025/2026 MY potentially reaching only 2.1 MMT, while the rest will be processed in Ukraine.
This year’s Soybean crop is approximately 5 MMT, significantly less than last year (6.8 MMT in 2024), which is explained by a significant reduction in sown areas and lower yields. Potential soybean exports could reach 2.5 MMT in the 2025/2026 MY, with the remainder to be processed in Ukraine, as its export is hindered by legislative restrictions, similar to rapeseed.
Regarding next year’s harvest, since the sown areas under winter crops are practically already known and taking into account the forecast for spring crop sowing, according to UGA estimates, next year’s potential harvest could total 84.5 MMT of grains and oilseeds, of which Ukraine could potentially export about 50 MMT.
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