Ukraine crushes more oilseeds, but port disruption changes the game

UkrAgroConsult

Ukraine’s soybean and rapeseed market changed substantially during the latest season as the export duty redirected part of raw seed supply from foreign sales toward domestic crushing. The 10% duty strengthened the position of Ukrainian processors and reduced the attractiveness of conventional raw seed exports. UkrAgroConsult notes that the result was not simply lower raw material exports, but a broader structural shift toward a larger role for oil and meal in Ukraine’s export model.

The most visible change was in processing capacity utilisation: the share of soybeans crushed domestically reached 50% of the crop, while rapeseed reached 40%, well above the levels typical of previous seasons. The longer-term pattern of domestic processing confirms that 2025/26 was exceptional for both crops, particularly for rapeseed, which had traditionally remained strongly export-oriented. This strengthened domestic competition for raw material and created an additional sales channel for farmers.

Foreign trade shifted at the same time as Ukraine increasingly exported processed products, reflecting limited domestic demand for soybean and rapeseed oil and the strong export orientation of the crushing industry. The recent export pattern for oils and meals shows a sharp expansion in the role of processed products, especially soybean and rapeseed meal. The duty therefore supported value creation inside Ukraine, but it also made the model more dependent on reliable access to international markets for finished products.

Price behaviour exposed the limits of the policy effect. During much of the season, competition between crushers and exporters supported domestic soybean and rapeseed prices, but that support weakened sharply once maritime logistics were disrupted. The trajectory of domestic EXW prices confirms that even strong processor demand cannot fully offset a loss of liquidity when both raw seeds and processed products face difficulties reaching foreign buyers.

The key market driver is now logistics rather than the duty itself. Seaports remain the most efficient channel for large agricultural volumes, so disruption affects both exporters and crushers and pushes more cargo toward rail and road alternatives. UkrAgroConsult argues that under these conditions a rigid fixed duty may be less effective than a flexible mechanism that allows the duty to be temporarily suspended or restored in response to logistics and market conditions.

Key trends

• The export duty changed the use of soybean and rapeseed crops in favour of domestic crushing, but its effectiveness depends directly on whether oil and meal can continue moving efficiently to foreign markets.
• Ukraine’s crushing industry gained stronger access to raw material and higher utilisation, supporting domestic value added and a more diversified agricultural export structure.
• Exports are increasingly shifting from raw seeds toward processed products, with strong oil and meal shipments confirming a broader transformation in the country’s oilseed trade model.
• Domestic prices benefit from competition between crushers and exporters only when logistics function reliably, meaning port disruption can quickly erase the positive price effect created by the duty.
• The moratorium debate reflects a change in the main market constraint: access to export logistics now matters more than the duty itself, making a flexible duty mechanism potentially more effective than a permanent fixed rate.

Tags: Oilseed, oilseed meal, soybean, rapeseed, duty, logistics, oil production, oilseed crushing, Ukraine, rapeseed oil, export, Ukrainian ports, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, prices, soy meal