Ukraine. Corn 2024/25: Bullish market at the start of the season?

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

HARVESTING PROGRESS

Corn harvesting is well underway in Ukraine. As of October 3, 37% of corn areas was  harvested. The yield of 5.16 mt/ha is finally above the long-term average but still below the 2023 average of 5.46 mt/ha. The yield improved significantly as the corn harvest moved to the northern parts of Ukraine. The lack of rain allowed farmers to save on drying corn this season, with corn moisture in the fields currently at 12-14%, which is even lower than the standard. UkrAgroConsult estimates that this season’s corn harvest will reach 26 M mt.

TRENDS OF FIRST MONTH OF THE 2024/25 SEASON

Corn exports in September were 428 K mt. This is lower than in Sept. 2022 and Sept. 2023, mainly due to high carryover stocks for those seasons.  However, when comparing corn exports in Sept. 2024 to the averages for Sept. 2017-2021, the 428 K mt is almost three times higher than the average corn exports for that month of 155 K mt. Top export destinations, Sept. 2024:

• Italy
• Netherlands
• Greece

EU countries are the largest importers of Ukrainian corn. In July-September 2024, the EU imported 5.2 M mt of corn from the 2023 and 2024 harvests, and 50% of this import was of Ukrainian origin. For comparison, last season the EU imported 4.6 M mt (46% from Ukraine).

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Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, Greece, crop forecast, Italy