Ukraine 2025 wheat crop seen at 21.8 million tons, corn at 28 million-29 million says farm union

Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest is forecast at a maximum of 21.8 million metric tons, down from 22.7 million tons in 2024, the UAC farmers’ union said on Wednesday, slightly raising its outlook for this year’s corn crop.

Why it matters: Ukraine is a major global supplier of grains, including wheat and corn, and exports about 40 million tons in total per season.

The Economy Ministry has forecast this year’s wheat harvest at 21 million tons, but the UAC – the largest Ukrainian farming union – said that estimate did not include output from small farmers that could add 500,000 to 800,000 tons.

Official data showed Ukraine’s farmers had harvested 21 million tons of wheat, with crops gathered from 98 per cent of the sown area as of August 22.

UAC added that low demand had caused milling wheat prices to fall by several dollars over the past week to approximately $228-$230 (C$315.80 to $318.57) to per ton carriage paid to (CPT).

“There is competition with Russia in the North African markets. There are many sellers in the market, and we are seeing a seasonal decline in prices,” UAC said, adding that prices could decrease to $222-$225 per ton CPT in the near future.

The union slightly increased its outlook for Ukraine’s 2025 corn output to up to 29 million tons from 28 million tons previously.

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry sees corn production at 28 million tons.

UAC said traders were gradually starting to contract corn, and that about 3.2 million tons of the grain had already been contracted from September to December.

“The main competition will come from American corn, and we will be competing with them for the European market. Our advantage is that our corn is GMO-free,” UAC said.

Ukraine will start the corn harvest in September.

Tags: harvest, corn, prices, wheat, forecast, milling wheat, Market, demand, Ukraine