UK wheat imports rise due to poor quality of winter crops, AHDB says

The poor condition of UK winter crops for harvest 2024 has been put in the spotlight, with production concerns one of the factors driving imports this season.

AHDB has released its first crop development report of 2024, confirming the widespread poor condition of all winter crops.

It says that the high rainfall levels over winter have continued to take their toll on growers in all parts of the country.

The worst conditions have been in the East Midlands and neighbouring regions of the West Midlands, East, and Yorkshire and the Humber.

As a result, crop condition ratings are sharply lower year-on-year. Just 34% of GB winter wheat is rated as in a good or excellent condition as of late-March.

This is a marked drop from last year, when 90% of the crop was rated good or excellent and even below March 2020’s 49%.

Meanwhile, wheat imports in 2023/24 could reach 2.00 Mt, according AHDB’s latest analysis.

It warns that this is a reflection of both the poor quality of the 2023 harvest and the ‘understandable worries’ about the 2024 harvest.

As a result, AHDB has increased its forecast of total season imports from the 1.75 Mt predicted in January to 2.00 Mt. This would be the highest level of wheat imports since 2020/21.

While wheat regularly astounds on its ability to recover from poor winters; the levy board says that this year will be a major test of this ability.

Despite establishing better than most wheat, the stress over winter has badly impacted GB winter barley crops and now only 38% is in a good or excellent condition.

A year ago, 92% of the GB winter barley crop was rated good or excellent. Many plants tillered less than usual leaving a lower yield potential and the crop is very dependent on a warm dryish spring.

While GB winter oat conditions are better than other winter crops, still only 37% of the UK crop is rated as good or excellent, the report notes. This is much lower than the 83% at the end of March 2023.

After sitting in water for so long over winter, many winter oilseed rape plants died and there are some very bare patches in the Midlands particularly.

Overall, only 31% of the GB winter oilseed rape crop is rated as in good or excellent condition. This is well below the 70% rated good-excellent at the end of March 2023 but slightly above March 2020’s 26%.

AHDB says that spring crop planting remains heavily delayed, and little insight can be offered at this stage.

More coverage is due in the next report, which will show the situation as at the end of April.

Tags: forecast, imports, winter barley, winter oat, harvest, winter oilseed rape, winter crops, UK, winter wheat, Production, AHDB, crop