Tight supply supports soybean prices in Ukraine

Soybean demand in the Ukrainian market currently exceeds selling activity, supporting prices. According to the analytical department of PUSK, prices at Ukraine’s western border are already rising, while for producers in central and western regions, exports in some cases are becoming more attractive than sales to domestic processors.

Initial purchase prices offered by Ukrainian soybean processors mostly range between UAH 16,000–16,500/t, while some plants are already bidding around UAH 17,000/t. The market is supported by expectations of a smaller crop and limited farmer selling amid strong buying interest.

PUSK expects processor purchase prices to rise to UAH 19,000–20,000/t by December-January. Unlike corn and sunflower seed, where analysts see greater downside price risks and recommend fixing part of the volumes in advance, the outlook for soybeans is currently more positive.

Seasonality, the supply-demand balance in the domestic market and export opportunities could provide further support to prices. At the same time, the availability of Black Sea and Danube export routes will have a significant impact on price dynamics.

War-related risks remain the key source of uncertainty. According to analysts, strikes on processing facilities or a further deterioration in logistics could quickly change market conditions. Therefore, despite the potential for further soybean price growth, the reliability of longer-term price forecasts remains limited.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean