The weather in Ukraine does not favor the harvesting of late crops and the development of winter crops

In the current season, the weather in Ukraine was not conducive to obtaining a good harvest, as precipitation was very uneven, low temperatures delayed the development of crops, and long autumn rains prevented the harvesting of late crops and the sowing of winter crops.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 4.4 million hectares or 92% of the planned areas were sown with winter crops in Ukraine, in particular: wheat – 3.7 million hectares or 93%, barley – 600 thousand hectares or 89%, rapeseed – 1 million hectares or 104%. According to the estimates of the Institute of Agriculture of the National Academy of Sciences, in the phase development of winter crops, the lag behind the average long-term indicators is 3-4 weeks, so the fate of the harvest of winter crops in 2023 will depend on weather conditions. In the optimal terms (until September 25), only 30% of the area was sown with winter wheat . Forecasted for the next 7-10 days, abundant precipitation in the form of rain and snow with temperatures of -5…+5 degrees will stop the development of crops and harvesting of corn, which has been threshed on only 50% of the area.

In Argentina, drought continues to lower wheat crop forecasts and delay planting of soybeans and corn, which will reduce their yield potential. Much of the area has below-normal soil moisture despite recent rains, and no significant precipitation is expected during the week. The forecast for wheat production has been lowered to 12-13 million tons compared to last year’s 22 million tons. After the rains, farmers were able to sow soybeans and corn, but the lack of rain in the next two weeks will reduce their harvest potential.

In Brazil, weather conditions favor the formation of a good harvest of soybeans and corn against the background of an increase in the area sown. Rains have passed in the central and southern regions and will continue for another week, albeit with less intensity.

The U.S. Midwest and Plains are experiencing cold weather with snow, but temperatures will warm next week, allowing farmers to finish harvesting corn. According to the USDA, as of November 13, 96% of the planned area was planted with winter wheat, and 93% of the corn was threshed, compared to the 5-year average of 85%.

According to forecasts by IHS Markit, 19.1 million hectares will be sown with wheat for the 2023/24 harvest in the US, while in the previous season this figure was 18.5 million hectares. Compared to last year, the area of winter wheat sowing will increase by 0.2 million ha to 13.7 million ha, spring wheat – by 0.2 million ha to 4.6 million ha, durum – will remain at the level of 0.7 million ha. Currently, 32% of crops are in good or excellent condition.

Deterioration of weather conditions in the center of the Russian Federation and the Volga region makes it difficult to harvest sunflowers, which have been threshed on only 65% of the areas compared to 90-95% on this date on average. As of November 10, 11.6 million tons of sunflower were harvested from 6.4 million hectares (9.5 million hectares last year) out of the forecasted 16.35 million tons. 17.5 million hectares were sown with winter crops compared to 18.1 million hectares last year due to heavy rains in the central regions.

Tags: Ukraine, harvesting, sowing