Thailand expects new rice harvest amid uncertainty over demand and weather

Thailand’s rice market is preparing for the arrival of the second-crop harvest, expected from late July, as supply dynamics, demand trends and weather conditions continue to shape market sentiment. Market participants remain divided over the potential impact of the new crop on prices.

Thai 5% broken white rice prices have recently strengthened, reflecting a mix of tight nearby supplies, exporter short covering and renewed import demand. However, analysts note that the direction of prices in the coming weeks remains uncertain as fresh supplies begin to enter the market.

Demand from key importers such as Malaysia, the Philippines and Iraq continues to provide underlying support. Trade flows remain active in early 2026, with these buyers accounting for a significant share of Thailand’s rice exports in recent years.

At the same time, weather conditions are adding another layer of uncertainty. While some market participants believe localized rainfall shortages will have limited impact on overall production, others warn that below-average precipitation could reduce the size of the upcoming crop if conditions do not improve during the ongoing rainy season.

According to USDA estimates, Thailand’s rice production is projected to decline slightly in the 2025/26 marketing year. Market direction will largely depend on how quickly new supplies reach exporters’ hands, whether demand from Asia and the Middle East strengthens further, and how weather conditions evolve in the coming months.

Tags: rice, Thailand