Sweden expects a decline in grain harvest

Sweden is set to see a significant reduction in grain production in 2026, with output forecast to fall by around 20% compared with last year, according to a new projection from the farmers’ cooperative Lantmännen, which represents about 17,000 Swedish farmers.

The cooperative estimates this year’s grain harvest at around 5 million tonnes. That is roughly 10% below the 10-year average of 5.5 million tonnes and about 20% lower than last year’s final harvest of 6.4 million tonnes. Lantmännen said winter damage is the main factor behind the decline.

“This year’s forecast shows a clearly weaker harvest situation,” said Per Germundsson, grain business director at Lantmännen. He added that winter conditions had hit crops hard, especially winter wheat, while farmers are also facing high production costs and low grain prices, creating a “triple challenge” of lower volumes, weak prices, and expensive inputs.

The assessment shows strong regional variation. Winter crops were severely affected in parts of western Sweden and the Mälardalen region, while other areas such as Skåne and Gotland have been hit by early summer drought. Spring crops have generally performed better, but their final yield will depend heavily on weather conditions in the coming weeks.

At the same time, farmers’ profitability remains under pressure due to high costs for fertilizers, fuel, and other inputs linked to global energy markets. Lantmännen warned that weak margins could reduce investment and negatively affect autumn sowing decisions for the 2027 harvest. “To strengthen Sweden’s food preparedness, we need to increase domestic production,” said CEO Magnus Kagevik, stressing the importance of profitability and long-term resilience across the food supply chain.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Sweden