Super El Niño probability rises to 81%

The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has raised the probability of the current El Niño developing into a Super El Niño to 81%. According to the latest outlook, there is a 97% chance that the climate pattern will persist at least until early spring 2027. If warming in the Pacific Ocean continues, this event could become one of the strongest recorded since the mid-20th century.

Forecasters report that sea surface temperatures across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are already more than 1°C above normal, with anomalies approaching 3°C in some areas. Such warming alters global atmospheric circulation and significantly affects weather patterns around the world.

A strong El Niño can dramatically reshape rainfall and temperature patterns. In Southeast Asia, it increases the risk of drought, wildfires, and crop losses, while other regions may experience heavier rainfall and flooding. At the same time, El Niño events are often associated with a less active Atlantic hurricane season.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of El Niño in June, but new observations indicate that the system is strengthening faster than expected. This prompted forecasters to sharply increase the probability of a Super El Niño event.

According to U.S. meteorologists, the stronger this El Niño becomes, the greater the likelihood that 2026 or 2027, or even both years, will set new global temperature records. For global agricultural markets, this means higher weather-related risks that could affect crop production across many regions of the world.