StoneX raises US soybean production forecast to 128.6 mln tons amid growing demand for soybean oil

Brokerage firm StoneX has raised its forecast for US soybean yields and production in the MY 2026/27. According to the updated estimate, average yields are expected to reach 55 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the previous forecast. The production estimate was increased by 77 mln bushels to 4.725 bln bushels, or approximately 128.6 mln tons. By comparison, USDA projected a record soybean crop of 4.562 bln bushels (124.2 mln tons) in its October report, with an average yield of 53.1 bushels per acre.

According to USDA NASS, as of November 1, US farmers had harvested soybeans on 88% of the area across the 18 major producing states. This was 9 percentage points higher than a week earlier and 4 points above the 2021–2025 average. The largest advances over average harvesting rates were recorded in Tennessee, Kentucky and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Kansas remained behind its normal pace, with 72% of the area harvested compared with the average of 78%.

Alongside rising soybean production, soybean oil is strengthening its position in the US biofuel market. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), its use in biodiesel and renewable diesel production continues to increase, while canola oil consumption remains relatively stable. Soybean oil also benefits from more favorable incentives under the 45Z tax credit program, which allows renewable diesel producers to receive approximately $0.55 per gallon of fuel produced using soybean oil, compared with $0.20–0.22 for canola oil.

Growing soybean demand is supported by the expansion of US crushing capacity, which has increased by 25% over the past five years. In particular, Louis Dreyfus Company plans to launch a new processing plant in Ohio with an annual capacity of 1.5 mln tons of soybeans, while CHS is building a facility in Wisconsin with an annual capacity of 2.18 mln tons, scheduled to begin operations in 2028. Increasing domestic soybean oil production will intensify competition with imported canola oil, particularly from Canada.

At the same time, the outlook for canola oil consumption in the US remains relatively favorable due to growing overall biofuel demand. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set biomass-based biofuel blending requirements for 2026–2027 at levels 67% higher than in 2025. In addition, US farmers planted approximately 3 mln acres of canola in 2026, while canola oil production in 2026/27 is forecast at 2.4 mln tons. Thus, expansion of the biofuel sector will support demand for both oils, although soybean oil is expected to retain its competitive advantages due to lower costs and more favorable tax incentives.

Tags: soybean oil, soybean, USA, biofuel