StoneX and Celeres raise their soybean crop forecasts in Brazil

On Monday, agribusiness firms StoneX and Celeres raised their forecasts for the 2025/26 soybean crop in Brazil, citing higher-than-expected yields in the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

STONEX

StoneX estimated this season’s soybean harvest at 181.62 million metric tons, up from its previous forecast of 177.61 million tons.

This represents a 7.6% year-on-year increase.

“As harvesting progresses, the outlook remains quite positive, despite significant variability in some areas due to unfavorable weather conditions,” said analyst Ana Luiza Lodi.

StoneX also estimated Brazil’s first corn harvest for the 2025/26 season at 26.59 million tons, up from its previous forecast of 25.98 million tons.

The second corn harvest is forecast to reach 106.37 million metric tons, up from the previous forecast of 105.82 million metric tons.

Celeres reported that Brazil’s soybean harvest is expected to reach a record 181.3 million metric tons, up from the previously forecast 177.2 million metric tons.

According to Celeres, the harvest will exceed the 2024/25 season’s figures by 5%.

“With the start of the 2025/26 harvest, some regions have pleasantly surprised in terms of yield,” the consulting firm said.

“Thanks to favorable weather for much of the growing cycle, southern Brazil has stood out this season,” the company added.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast