Soybeans could become one of the few profitable crops for Ukrainian farmers in 2026/27

Soybeans could become one of the most profitable crops for Ukrainian farmers in the MY 2026/27 amid low grain prices and rising logistics costs. According to participants at AgroFoodSummit in Turkey, revenue from selling 1 ton of soybeans is roughly equivalent to that from selling 3 tons of wheat. Under current conditions, wheat and corn production could become unprofitable, while soybeans may provide farmers with positive margins and cash flow after harvesting.

The EU and Turkey remain the most promising markets for Ukrainian soybeans. Non-GM soybeans are particularly attractive in Europe, where they can be sold at a price premium. However, restrictions on Black Sea port operations and high freight rates are limiting export destinations. Ukraine has effectively lost access to the Pakistani market, while Egypt has significantly reduced purchases of Ukrainian soybeans, increasing exporters’ dependence on the European market.

According to traders, premiums for non-GM soybeans could remain available until the end of December, as European buyers seek to secure supplies. However, a significant increase in premiums is not expected. Smaller farms that cannot organize exports independently are likely to focus on domestic processors. Nevertheless, the development of soybean processing is constrained by war-related risks and difficulties in marketing soybean meal.

Additional opportunities for Ukrainian soybeans could emerge from changes in the global market. Global soybean production exceeds 442 mln tons, while Brazil’s harvest and China’s import demand remain the key price drivers. According to USDA, Brazil could harvest 186 mln tons of soybeans in 2026/27, while Conab estimates production at 181.6 mln tons. Meanwhile, soybean acreage expansion in Brazil could slow to its lowest pace in 20 years due to rising costs and declining profitability.

Analysts note that weather risks in Brazil and changes in trade flows between the US, China, and South America could boost demand for alternative suppliers, including Ukraine. The Mediterranean markets offer particularly strong opportunities, as Ukrainian soybeans could partially replace shipments from major global exporters. This could help Ukrainian producers expand sales and capture higher added value, particularly in the non-GM segment.

Tags: prices, soybean, margin, Ukraine