Soybean prices fall as harvest in South America is completed and planting accelerates in the U.S.

According to the Conab agency, as of May 26, soybeans in Brazil were harvested on 98.1% of 45.7 million hectares, and the harvest forecast remains at 147-152 million tons.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that as of May 22, soybeans in Argentina were harvested on 78% of the area, and the crop forecast was raised to 50.5 million tons, which is slightly higher than the USDA’s May estimate.

The USDA crop tour showed that as of May 26, 68% of the planned areas were planted with soybeans in the United States (78% last year, 63% on average for 5 years). Moderate temperatures and periodic precipitation contribute to the sowing and development of crops.

In 2023/24 MY (as of May 23), the U.S. soybean exports totaled 39.97 mln tonnes, down 17.5% from last year. Strong competition from Brazil, which exports 13-14 million tons of soybeans per month, limits the export of soybeans from the United States at the level of 1 million tons per month.

Yesterday on the Chicago stock exchange, the July soybean futures fell 1.3% to 446,1 $/t (-2.6% for the week, +4.2% for the month), and November – by 1.2% to 439,7 $/t (-1.8% and +3.2%) amid increasing planting rates and slowing exports.

In Ukraine, as of may 23, soybeans planted 1.83 million hectares of the projected 2 million hectares (1.8 million hectares in 2023), and the long-awaited precipitation will accelerate sowing and contribute to the development of crops.

Export demand prices for soybeans with GMOs remain at 400-415 USD/t or 18500-19000 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports, and for soybeans without GMOs at 460-465 USD/t with delivery to the Danube ports. However, traders are already completing the purchase of soybeans and starting to buy new crop rapeseed.

Processors buy GMO soybeans at 18000-18300 UAH/t and non-GMO soybeans at 19200-19500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, but have difficulties with the sale of meal and cake, as prices in the EU are lower than in Ukraine.

the Increase in the supply of soybeans from South America and the likely increase in the supply of canola from Canada will increase pressure on prices in the EU, which will negatively affect prices in Ukraine.

Tags: Brazil, prices, soybean, USA, Argentina