South Africa to remain net corn exporter

South Africa will remain a net exporter of corn in marketing year 2024-25 despite challenging weather that has lowered the forecast for planted area to 3 million hectares with production of 16 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Jan. 22 report, the FAS said South Africa’s 2024-25 production season started off slowly with sporadic rainfall during October 2024 and a heatwave in November 2024, affecting the progress in corn plantings. In mid-December, improved and sustained rainfall over most parts of South Africa’s corn production areas began to reshape the outlook.

Early season plantings that suffered during the heatwaves recovered or were replanted, except in some areas where producers struggled to get into fields to finish sowing due to the wet conditions, according to the FAS. In general, corn plantings in 2024-25 are later than the five-year average due to the delayed rains.

“Weather forecasters predict La Niña weather conditions for the rest of the season, which generally supports sufficient rainfall and conducive production conditions in South Africa’s corn producing area,” the FAS said.

The 2023-24 corn crop suffered tremendously from drought, falling to 13.3 million tonnes, or 22% less than the previous marketing year, necessitating imports.

Previous estimates for the commercial demand for corn in 2023-24 and 2024-25 upward to 12.2 million and 12.4 million tonnes, respectively, on higher animal feed demand. The country’s broiler industry recovered in 2024 after the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2023.

South Africa should maintain its status as a net exporter of corn in 2024-25 with an expected commercial crop above 15 million tonnes. However, the FAS revised its previous forecast for exports downward to 1.5 million tonnes on relatively lower expected planted area that will reduce corn availability for export, coupled with an expected higher demand for corn in the local feed industry.

“South Africa is expected to export about 2 million tonnes of corn in 2023-24,” the FAS said. “South Africa’s corn exports focus mainly on neighboring countries where import demand is elevated after last year’s drought-stricken season.”

South Africa is not expected to import any corn to meet domestic demand in 2024-25 after importing 800,000 tonnes in 2023-24. The country imported 465,000 tonnes of yellow corn from Argentina and Brazil and the first shipment of 23,768 tonnes of white corn from the United States arrived after genetic engineering issues were resolved.

Year-end stocks are forecast to recover from the abnormally low levels estimated for 2023-24, expanding by 75% to 1.4 million tonnes in 2024-25 on higher local production and less exports, to equal about six weeks of commercial utilization.

Tags: corn