South Africa’s wheat plantings could fall to their lowest level in 12 seasons

South African wheat farmers will face a challenging start to the 2026/27 season as low global wheat prices coincide with rising production costs. Higher fertilizer and fuel prices, driven in part by tensions in the Middle East, are putting additional pressure on farm profitability and weighing on planting decisions.

The global wheat market remains well supplied following a record 2025/26 harvest of 844 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. While abundant supplies help keep food prices in check for consumers, they also limit revenue opportunities for wheat producers and reduce incentives to expand acreage.

Against this backdrop, South African farmers are expected to reduce wheat plantings by 6% to 486,400 hectares. The largest declines are anticipated in the Western Cape, Free State, and North West provinces. If realized, this would mark the smallest wheat area planted in the country in the past 12 seasons.

The situation is particularly significant because South Africa already relies on imports for roughly half of its annual wheat consumption. Industry representatives continue to advocate for balanced tariff policies that support domestic production while maintaining affordable food supplies for consumers.

Some relief may come from changes in global market fundamentals. Forecasts indicate that world wheat production could decline to 819 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, which may provide support to international prices and improve returns for local growers. For now, however, South Africa’s wheat sector remains under considerable economic pressure.

Tags: wheat, South Africa