South Africa may face lower grain and oilseed harvests due to El Niño

South Africa is beginning its 2026/27 grain and oilseed planting season amid growing weather risks. According to forecasts from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), strengthening El Niño conditions could lead to below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures in the country’s key agricultural regions. Meanwhile, recent rains have improved soil moisture levels, creating favorable conditions for the start of fieldwork.

South African farmers typically plant around 4.5 mln ha of summer crops, but the area increased to 4.6 mln ha in the 2025/26 season. Of this total, corn accounted for approximately 2.7 mln ha, or 59%, while soybeans covered 1.2 mln ha, or 26%. According to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, despite the threat of drought and rising fertilizer and fuel costs, no significant reduction in planted area is currently expected in the new season.

El Niño remains the main risk to the upcoming harvest. Meteorologists forecast that it could strengthen to a very strong level and persist throughout the 2026/27 summer growing season. The highest probability of below-normal rainfall is expected in northeastern parts of the country during late spring and the first half of summer. This could negatively affect corn, soybean, sunflower seed and other crop yields, particularly if dry conditions coincide with critical stages of crop development.

Meanwhile, South Africa is completing the previous season with substantial production volumes. According to the September estimate from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), total summer grain and oilseed production in the 2025/26 season is estimated at 21.7 mln tons, up 6% year on year. The figure includes corn, soybeans, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. Ample grain and oilseed stocks allow the country to enter the new season in a stronger position than during previous drought periods.

Further production prospects will depend on weather developments and farmers’ planting decisions. On October 27, the CEC is scheduled to release its first report on farmers’ planting intentions for the 2026/27 season. Analysts recommend considering early-maturing varieties, which may be better suited to potential moisture shortages. However, the extent of El Niño’s impact on the upcoming harvest remains uncertain.

Tags: winter planting, Grains, oilseeds, South Africa, sown area