SAFRAS & Mercado cuts production of corn in Argentina

A better December in terms of rainfall but still with deficiencies to be corrected. A good portion of the planting of corn is converted to the final month, January. High temperatures in December and January. Production losses started in Argentina. Initially, in the region of Santa Fé toward the north and northeast of the country. Now, waiting for the weather forecast for Cordoba and Buenos Aires. The year of La Nina, once again, is leaving its trail of production losses in Argentina and Rio Grande do Sul. From now on, planting and development deadlines will determine whether losses will be greater or not.

The rains in December were better in its last ten days but maintained an irregular pattern in the country in this period. There was more rainfall for Cordoba and Buenos Aires than for Santa Fe and the north of the country. The earliest crops in this region further to the north and northeast were more affected by this year’s drought. Therefore, the already irreversible losses are centered in this region of the country. Cordoba and Buenos Aires, the two main corn-producing provinces, are still in better conditions or likely to improve them if the rains return.

Good rains hit these two provinces at the turn of the year, and Cordoba is in better condition at the moment. However, January is passing, the weather is improving in some regions, and the losses start to become more evident. The planting is at 70% complete, with 30% of the area waiting for rains to close the planting until the end of the month. Without the rains, part of the area could remain without planting and generate a smaller crop. At this time, production has been updated to 50.2 mln tons, against 54/55 mln tons projected earlier. For now, a crop not very different from that of 2022, which led to exports of 36 mln tons across the country. However, production is completely open.

Climate maps suggest a reasonable improvement for the second half of January. The late completion of the planting is not an abnormal situation in Argentina, but the percentage open for planting puts a greater portion of production at risk for the fall/winter period, with the risk of frost, snow, or excessive rainfall. Much of the local crop will only be reaped in May and June.

Corn export registrations in Argentina are closed for the 2022 season and have not yet opened for 2023. The government must determine the maximum volume of registrations only after defining the local crop. Meanwhile, the country is not exporting.

Tags: corn, planting, rainfall, Production, La Nina, Weather forecast, Argentina, losses