SAFRAS lowers Brazilian soybean production estimate

The effects of the persistently dry climate in the states of Santa Catarina and, mainly, in Rio Grande do Sul are already leading to reviews in crop estimates. The forecast is still for record production, above 150 mln tons, but the climate behavior in January will be key to defining the production potential.

Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 must total 153.37 mln tons, up 20.3% from the previous season’s crop, which was 127.44 mln tons. The estimate was disclosed by SAFRAS & Mercado. If confirmed, it will be the biggest crop in history.

On November 11, when the previous report was released, the projection was 154.53 mln tons. The decline from the previous estimate is 0.76%.

SAFRAS indicates an acreage increase of 3.8%, estimated at 43.75 mln hectares. In 2021/22, the planting occupied 42.16 mln hectares. The survey points out that average productivity must increase from 3,038 to 3,523 kg per hectare.

Adjustments were made to the expected average productivity for some states, with emphasis on the reduction in production potential in Rio Grande do Sul. Although January is still fundamental for defining production in Rio Grande do Sul, the low moisture registered since November has caused problems for crops in some regions of the state, reducing the productive potential of plants. This fact results in a reduction in average productivity at state level, while the adjustments made in other growing states in the country were isolated.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, Production, crop, forecast, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, estimates, planting