Russian wheat exports could fall to a decade low in August

Russia’s grain exports risk falling to their lowest level in a decade in August due to shipping disruptions at southern ports amid escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, industry analysts warn.

According to SovEcon, Russia is expected to export between 3 and 3.4 mln tons of wheat in August. This is well below the five-year average of 5 mln tons for the month and could mark the lowest August volume since the 2016/17 season. Meanwhile, ProZerno forecasts total grain exports at nearly 2.5 mln tons amid severe logistics disruptions in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The five-year average for August grain exports stands at 5.7 mln tons.

Export disruptions have led to an accumulation of grain supplies on Russia’s domestic market. Domestic grain prices fell by as much as RUB 450/t ($5.46/t) over the past week as farmers face difficulties shipping the new crop abroad. At the same time, a sharp increase in sea freight costs is prompting some foreign buyers to step back from purchases of Russian grain.

Despite the worsening export situation, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced an increase in the wheat export duty for August 12–18. According to the ministry, the country has already harvested more than 72 mln tons of grain, including over 60 mln tons of wheat.

Against this backdrop, IKAR lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2026 grain harvest from 140 mln to 138.5 mln tons. Its estimate of the country’s total grain export potential for the 2026/27 season was also reduced from 61.5 mln to 60 mln tons. Russian exporters warn that a further deterioration of the situation in the Black Sea could constrain grain shipments even more and support global wheat prices.

Tags: export, prices, wheat, Russia