Russian sunflower oil exports may fall 40% in August due to logistics disruptions

Russia’s sunflower oil exports could decline by 40% year-on-year in August 2026 to around 150,000 tons as severe logistics constraints continue to disrupt shipments through the Azov-Black Sea region. Exports in July are also expected to be 14.3% lower than a year earlier and nearly 54% below June levels. The estimates were reported by the Russian newspaper Kommersant.

According to Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon analytical center, Russia’s sunflower oil exports are expected to total around 180,000 tons in July, down from 390,000 tons in June. Market participants also expect a sharp decline in exports of other vegetable oils.

The main reason for the downturn is the worsening logistics situation. Mikhail Maltsev, Executive Director of the Russian Oil and Fat Union, said shipments through Azov Sea ports have almost come to a halt, while shipowners remain reluctant to call at Black Sea ports because of heightened security risks. Analysts at the Center for Price Indices also report a significant reduction in the region’s shipping capacity.

The shipping restrictions intensified after Ukrainian drone and unmanned surface vessel attacks on commercial ships and port infrastructure. In late July, infrastructure at the port of Taman, home to grain and vegetable oil terminals, was reported damaged. More than half of Russia’s vegetable oil exports had previously been shipped through the Azov and Black Sea ports.

Russian exporters are now trying to redirect cargo flows through the Baltic and Caspian Sea ports. Alternative routes via Iran are also being considered, with cargo transported by road to ports on the Gulf of Oman before being shipped to India. However, analysts doubt these routes can offset the losses because of high logistics costs and the limited capacity of Russian and Iranian Caspian ports.

Another option is to expand container shipments using flexi tanks. According to Sizov, about 10% of Russia’s vegetable oil exports are currently shipped this way. The St. Petersburg Oil Terminal is also being considered for certain destinations, including India, after already handling several sunflower oil export shipments.

Despite the weak outlook, Russian analysts note that July and early August are traditionally the off-season for the vegetable oil market. Export activity is expected to recover after the new sunflower crop begins to be processed in September. Even then, however, logistics constraints are likely to remain a major factor limiting Russia’s sunflower oil exports.

Tags: Russia, sunflower oil, export, war