Russian market expects Turkey could restrict wheat imports

Possible early presidential elections in Turkey could lead to a ban on wheat imports, including Russian supplies, said Donier Jamaldinov of Copenhagen Merchants at the V All-Russian Grain Forum – 2026. He noted that the pre-election period creates a favorable environment for domestic agricultural producers.

“Early elections are expected in Turkey, most likely next year, according to market participants and political analysts. Election campaigns have always been characterized by creating a supportive environment for agricultural producers. Accordingly, if this is reflected in the market, I believe procurement prices of the Turkish state operator will increase, and in this case we may likely see an import ban,” Jamaldinov said.

According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), Turkey’s wheat harvest could increase by 20% in the 2026–2027 season. As reported in early April by Oleoscope, cultivated land is expected to reach 7.45 million hectares — the highest level in eight years. Wheat production could rise to 19.8 million tonnes.

The head of the analytical center “Rusagrotrans,” Igor Pavensky, estimates that Turkey’s wheat imports could decline by around 3 million tonnes.

Overall global wheat trade in the 2026–2027 season (July–June) is expected to fall to 199.6 million tonnes, compared to 205.2 million tonnes a year earlier, a decrease of 5.6 million tonnes.

Among 12 major importing countries, total imports are projected to decline by 8.4 million tonnes. The largest reductions, aside from Turkey, are expected in Morocco, also by around 3 million tonnes. Morocco has suspended imports of soft wheat from June 1 to July 31, which may slow demand at the beginning of the season, Jamaldinov noted. Pavensky also expects lower imports by Algeria, Indonesia, Egypt, and the Philippines.

In case of an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, new-crop prices could adjust downward compared to current levels.

Comment: UkrAgroConsult has no information regarding possible early elections in Turkey or the potential introduction of restrictions on wheat imports.

Tags: Turkey, wheat, imports, restrictions