Rising biodiesel imports cap US soybean oil prices
US soybean oil futures have mostly remained in a 65–75 cents/lb range since mid-July, even as soybean futures reached three-year highs in early September and crude oil prices hovered near $100/barrel.
The main factor limiting price gains has been ample supply. After the EPA set record-high biomass-based diesel mandates for 2026–2027 and maintained full credit for imported feedstocks, biofuel producers increased purchases of vegetable oils and other feedstocks from abroad.
Imports of finished biodiesel also rose sharply. According to USDA FAS, imports totaled around 39.2 thsd tons in January–March and nearly doubled to 79.8 thsd tons in April–June.
Strong imports of feedstocks and finished biodiesel, combined with higher domestic soybean oil production, have created excess supply. As a result, even seasonal downtime at crushing plants has provided only limited support to prices.
Additional uncertainty comes from EPA exemptions granted to some small refineries, which could affect near-term biofuel demand. As a result, soybean oil futures remain confined to a relatively narrow trading range.
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