Review of 2021/22 season in Ukraine and worldwide: Wheat

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

World production in MY 2021/22 grew by 3 M mt (+0.4%) owing to successful harvests in the EU, Australia, Argentina and Ukraine. The most significant crop declines were seen in the U.S., Canada and Russia.

Among the importers, noteworthy is a 2.25 M mt crop drop in Turkey and increasing wheat production in Pakistan and India. The latter even began to actively export its wheat (mainly to neighboring countries for now).

The above resulted in stronger presence of Australia and Argentina in the Southeast Asian market and higher demand for Black Sea grain from Turkey and other Middle East countries.

World wheat prices showed standard seasonality in the first half of the season but jumped sharply in late February, after the beginning of the russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine. They did return to pre-war levels as late as June, ahead of the new season.

Despite the disruption of usual logistics chains, Ukraine managed to export 18.8 M mt, or 13% more than a year earlier.

From the viewpoint of weather conditions, the 2022 crop outlook is good, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Due to under-exported stocks from the previous season and good yield, exportable supplies may depend from resuming seaports operations.

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Tags: Australia, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, export, EU, prices, Pakistan, Canada, wheat, India, USA, Argentina, crop forecast