Grain harvest in Russia in 2024 may drop to 135-136 mln tons due to drought

The grain harvest in Russia this year may drop to 135-136 million tons from 144.9 million tons in 2023. One of the reasons is drought in the south, ProZerno CEO Vladimir Petrichenko said.

“There were expectations of rain in the south. I thought we would harvest 141 million tons. But these expectations are not coming true, it is getting worse, so the pendulum has swung the other way. I believe that now it will be less than 140 million tons, and maybe even if the drought in the south spreads and intensifies, we will see 135-136 million tons without new territories,” he said.

The forecast for wheat harvest of 90 million tons is likely to drop to 88 million tons, barley from 19.5 million to 18 million tons, and corn from 18.8 million to about 15 million tons, the expert said.

In 2023, the grain harvest was 92.8 million tons, barley – 21.1 million tons, corn – 16.6 million tons.

As Petrichenko forecasts, the potential for grain exports in the new agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025) is 55.2 million tons against 69.2 million tons in the current season. Including wheat exports are estimated at 43.2 million tons (52 million tons this season). “This is an important signal to buyers of Russian wheat, it is minus 9 million tons, prices are up, we should buy,” he said.

According to him, for 9 months of the current season (from July 1, 2023) grain exports amounted to 50 million tons, which is 10 million tons more than the season before.

Tags: Russia, corn, grain, barley, wheat, crop forecast